Despite a strong start in the first quarter of 2022, last year proved to be a consolidation period for the precious metal market, relatively in line with expectations, according to the latest report from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Friday, the LBMA reported that gold prices averaged $1,800.09 an ounce last year, up only slightly from the 2021 average price of $1,798.60 an ounce. By Neils Christensen for Kitco News

A surge in gold smuggling has pushed India to look into cutting its import duty on the precious metal as illegal activity is hurting official profits.”The Indian government is set to unveil its annual budget for the upcoming 2023-24 fiscal year (April-23-March-24) on 1st February,” said Metals Focus in its report Monday. “Under normal circumstances, any changes in the customs or import duty also tend to be revealed at this time.” By Anna Golubova for Kitco News

Gold is deeply embedded in Indian culture and purchases are often driven by tradition. Typically, all family members are involved in decision making about how and when gold jewellery purchases are made. Discussions over the years between Metals Focus and retail jewellers have revealed that weddings remain the key motive for buying gold in India. By Gold Hub

Gold miners have had to search deeper and harder to find the precious metal over the past decade, and it sometimes gold majors such as Newcrest (ASX:NCM), Barrick, Newmont and Gold Fields seem to be running in place. New analysis from Metals Focus shows that the world’s 12 biggest gold producers have seen their growth stall and even fall backwards, despite prices lifting to unforeseen highs over the past 10 years. Metals Focus says the group’s total equivalent gold production has tumbled 10 per cent since 2013. By Josh Chiat for Stockhead

However, as Wilma Swarts, director of platinum-group metals (PGMs) at Metals Focus, explained, supply troubles out of other regions had a major impact on palladium’s 2022 price story. “The Russian war on Ukraine had a very material impact on the palladium price, but this was primarily due to market speculation rather than weakening regional supply,” Swarts wrote in an email to the Investing News Network (INN). “Mine supply from Russia remained in line with production guidance.” By Georgia Williams for Palladium Investing News

Gold’s run at the US$1,900 price point has come to an abrupt halt after a tight US labour market led the US Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance and confirm its commitment to bringing down inflation. Metals Focus has forecast that gold prices will ease noticeably in 2023 as real rates rise, the US dollar holds on to most of its recent gains, the attractions of rival assets build and physical markets, including central banks, disappoint. By Bevis Yeo for Stockhead

“Platinum has shifted into a small deficit this year,” said Wilma Swarts, director of PGM at Metals Focus. “While we have seen positive growth in the automotive sector, the underlying factors driving the market balance this year are heavily weighted towards weaker supply rather than stronger demand. Global demand for 2022 will be flat on 2021 at 7.4 million ounces while global supply is forecast to decline by 11 percent to 7.3 million ounces.” By Georgia Williams for Platinum Investing News

Industrial demand for silver was at a record in 2022, reaching 539 million ounces, according to Metals Focus managing director Philip Newman. With so many countries focused on energy security, silver saw new demand come from solar panel installations, which hit new highs this year, Newman added during an LBMA webinar summarizing silver. By Anna Golubova for Kitco News

Metals Focus is also bucking the trend with its bearish predictions for gold in 2023. “We believe that this rally is unlikely to be sustainable as the yellow metal has to contend with rising real yields in 2023, which will raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and, in turn, undermine investor sentiment once the ongoing relief rally in global financial markets fades,” it says. By Reuben Adams for Stockhead

The average head grade at the world’s primary gold operations has been declining every year since reaching a 10-year peak of 1.46 g/t in 2017 and by 2021, the average grade had dropped by 8% from this peak to 1.35 g/t, Metals Focus stated in its recent report. By Vladimir Basov for Kitco News

The global silver market is expected to potentially see its largest physical deficit this year as demand surges across all segments – notably in India, research consultancy Metals Focus said. The deficit – forecast at 194Moz, or 6,023t – will be, “at the very least”, a multi-decade high, Metals Focus said. By Mining Journal

“We think overall central banks will remain net buyers” of gold, “given its performance in recent years” and its nature of not being “another nation’s liability,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director at precious- metals consultancy Metals Focus. Central banks generally do not unload their gold holdings in the market, meaning the more they buy the precious metal, the stronger support this will give its price. By Munemasa Horio for Nikkei Asia

In an interim report published last week as part of the Annual Silver Industry Dinner in New York, the Silver Institute said that global silver demand is expected to hit a new record of 1.21 billion ounces this year, rising 16% from 2021. “Each key segment of demand, except photography, is set to post a new peak,” said the analysts at Metals Focus, the author of the latest report. By Neils Christensen for Kitco News

Demand is likely to fall next year, said Philip Newman at consultants Metals Focus, which prepared the Silver Institute’s numbers. “India’s restocking is likely to trip over into 2023 but at some point will dissipate,” he said. “By extension, you could see some decent figures in 2023 but it may not match 2022.” Newman said he expected strong demand from industries such as solar panel and auto makers and more silver supply deficits in the coming years, but not as large as in 2022. By Peter Hobson for Reuters

According to the Silver Institute, global silver demand is forecast to reach a record total in 2022, driven by new highs for industrial demand, jewelry and silverware offtake and physical investment. These were some of the key findings reported by Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus, and Adam Webb, Director of Mine Supply, during the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review in New York today, which featured historical supply and demand statistics and estimates for 2022. By Vladimir Basov for Kitco News

In their 2023 price forecast, analysts at the British research firm Metals Focus said that they expect average gold prices to drop 10% next year, bottoming in the fourth quarter at a 4-year low of around $1,500 an ounce.The analysts have an even more dour outlook on silver, forecasting a 17% drop in the average price in 2023. The analysts said that they see silver prices bottoming in the fourth quarter at around $16.50 an ounce. By Neils Christensen for Kitco News