Consultants Metals Focus forecast a 953,000-ounce platinum undersupply, up from just 53,000 ounces in 2022. The forecasts use slightly different methodology, with Metals Focus excluding platinum bought or sold by exchange-traded funds. By Reuters

Platinum, palladium and rhodium markets will see their biggest deficits in years in 2023 but undersupply is unlikely to lift prices much, consultants Metals Focus said on Monday. All three metals have similar physical and chemical properties, and are chiefly used in vehicle exhausts to neutralise harmful engine emissions. By Reuters

“Imports went up in 2022 as demand rose after two years of Covid-19. But now the situation has normalised and imports will come down. But the high prices will dent the demand by 15 -20 per cent,” said Chirag Sheth, principal consultant of Metals Focus, an independent precious metals research consultancy. By Sutanuka Ghosal for The Economic Times

“We are moving into a different paradigm for the market, one of ongoing deficits,” said Philip Newman at Metals Focus, the research firm that prepared the Silver Institute’s data. “Silver demand was unprecedented in 2022, and we don’t say that to try and be sensational, that is the only way to describe the market,” Newman stated in an interview with Kitco News this week. By Rick Mills for Mining.com

That being said, Metals Focus gave a very succinct presentation of the silver market and their very forward-looking view of the price for the white metal for the coming year. There will be silver supply deficit for the next few years. Additionally, in their note they mentioned that “the combined shortfalls of the previous two years comfortably offset the cumulative surpluses of the last 11 years”. By
G. Miguel Perez-Santalla for Kitco News

“Silver demand was unprecedented in 2022, and we don’t say that to try and be sensational that is the only way to describe the market,” Neman said. “The silver market has entered a new paradigm of deficits that kicked off in 2021.” Looking ahead, The Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect silver to post another “sizable deficit,” even if it is down from last year’s record highs. Analysts expect solid demand will create a market deficit of 142.1 million ounces in 2023. by Neils Christensen for Kitco News

“We are moving into a different paradigm for the market, one of ongoing deficits,” said Philip Newman at consultants Metals Focus, which prepared the Silver Institute’s data. But he said this wouldn’t necessarily cause prices to shoot higher because while visible silver inventories are falling, huge amounts of metal held by individuals and investors can still fill supply gaps. By Peter Hobson for Reuters

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, said that even if silver demand falls from last year’s highs, it remains elevated by historical standards. “Coin and bar demand since the pandemic have been eye-watering high,” he said. “Global demand for gold and silver are expected to remain healthy through 2023.” By Neils Christensen for Kitco News

Gold is unlikely to hold the $2,000 an ounce level in the long term unless the Federal Reserve communicates a clear pivot in its messaging, said Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus. The gold space surged after the banking turmoil, and prices continue to trade well above $2,000 an ounce. But that trend will not last into the second half of the year, Newman told Kitco News. By Anna Golubova for Kitco

At US$1289/oz, average AISC globally in the September quarter was at record levels according to the Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service. “This significant rise in costs has largely been driven by inflation of almost all input costs for miners,” director of mine supply at Metals Focus Adam Webb said at the time. “In particular, a tight labour market in many major gold producing countries has led to increasing wage rates and therefore rising staff costs. By Josh Chiat for Stockhead

Platinum, palladium and rhodium, prized for their use in catalytic converters in internal combustion engine cars, remain below their pandemic and post-Ukraine invasion highs. Palladium, which briefly topped US$3000/oz a year ago, is down to US$1444/oz, while platinum remains sub US$1000/oz. Meanwhile, rhodium prices remain under pressure according to analysts at Metals Focus. “Since rhodium’s fifth and latest failed attempt to break through $30,000 in May 2021, the price has been under pressure,” they say. By Josh Chiat for Stockhead

Fed policy – and market expectations around Fed policy – has been a particularly important driver of gold prices in recent months, says Metals Focus. “Much of the price upside seen in Q4.22 reflected investor expectations that the Fed would turn more dovish, anticipating modest rate increases in H1.23, before seeing cuts emerge during H2,” it says. By Reuben Adams for Stockhead

The Indian market is particularly strong for silver. Silver consumption there was forecast to surge by around 80% in 2022, Bloomberg said, as warehouse inventories were drawn down after two years of covid. While little silver was bought in 2020 and 2021, because of hits to supply chains and demand, 2022 sales look back on track: Local purchases may surpass 8,000 tons in 2022 from about 4,500 tons [in 2021], said Chirag Sheth, principal consultant at Metals Focus Ltd. That’s up from an April [2022] estimate of 5,900 tons. By Richard Mills for Kitco

On March 8, the platinum futures contract settled at $940.60 an ounce, while palladium ended at $1,362.10 an ounce, its lowest since June 2019. In the past 12 months, platinum has lost 18%, but still outperformed palladium, which dropped 54%. Palladium was “badly hit” by an anemic auto sector, and demand hasn’t recovered since the pandemic, says Nikos Kavalis, managing director at Metals Focus. He says substitution from palladium to platinum and a rise in battery-powered vehicles contributed to palladium’s steeper decline. By Myra P. Saefong for Barron’s

A worsening of electricity supply shortages in major producer South Africa and sanctions-related operating challenges in Russia are among downside risks to the global supply, the WPIC, which uses data from consultants Metals Focus, added

“While [Nornickel’s] production achieved planned volumes, logistical challenges associated with the conflict resulted in increased friction in sales during the early part of 2022 with around 9% of palladium produced in the first half of 2022 not realized as sales,” Jacob Smith, senior analyst of platinum group metals at Metals Focus, an independent precious metals consultancy, told Commodity Insights. “Logistical challenges appear to have eased as the year progressed; however, the reorientation of sales to new markets in 2022 and beyond is not yet completely evident/factored.” By Eri Silva for S&P Global