In the Press
For how much longer will Transnet derail our economy?
During a recent conversation I had with Sarah Tomlinson, Director of Mine Supply at international consulting and research firm, Metals Focus, she mentioned that investors look for favourable conditions when deciding to put their money in mining. This include political stability, favourable tax laws and proper infrastructure. By Gerard Peter for Mining Review Africa
Gold prices hit record highs, will the rally continue? Experts weigh in
“At this point in time, we see no reason why the Fed will alter its course of remaining hawkish for much of 2024. So we don’t think interest rates will be cut until very late next year. So under that scenario, as the market moves towards the Fed’s position, we think you will see liquidations by investors and then that will gradually weigh on the prices. So we think gold will gradually weaken and head towards $1,900 per ounce and then head back towards $1,800 level as we move through 2024,” Newman told CNBC-TV18. By Manisha Gupta for CNBC-TV18
Gold Digger: Every cloud has a silver lining
Despite a challenging economic backdrop, global silver industrial demand is expected to achieve a new all-time high in 2023, according to Metals Focus. This, coupled with a slight dip in total supply, will see the silver market post another sizeable deficit in 2023. Overall demand is expected to fall by 10% year on year to 1.14 billion ounces in 2023 – thanks to weaker investment demand — but this drop must be set against 2022’s record high total, Metals Focus says. By Reuben Adams for Stockhead
AI Surge To Fuel Precious Metals Demand In 2024
Metals Focus, an independent precious metals research consultancy, released a note recently that said it expects the increased demand for chips powering AI technology to drive “widespread support for a range of precious metals bearing components.” Industrial and tech demand for precious metals has been muted this year due to sluggish global economic activity. For instance, the demand for gold in the tech and industrial sector was down 3% year-on-year in the third quarter with offtake in the electronics sector dropping by 4%. By ZeroHedge for OilPrice.com
New bank misery will dictate gold’s direction more than geopolitics
It’s often said there is a negative correlation between rates and gold, but not always. There are times when gold and rates increase, such as in the 1970s. More recently, gold had a trough-to-peak rally of nearly 28% and missed the record in 2022 by less than $10 an ounce, during which time the Fed took policy rates to levels not seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis, according to Metals Focus, a UK research house. By David McKay for Mining Mx
AI boom could feed precious metals’ demand – Metals Focus
To cope with the evolution of AI algorithms, shipping growth for AI servers and switches will rise by double digits over the next few years and stimulate precious metals demand, Metals Focus said. Demand will rise for platinum alloys used in chip manufacturing, silver-palladium Ag-Pd multi-layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) in high power components, gold bonding wire in chip and memory packages, gold plating in printed circuit boards and palladium plating on lead frames, it added. By Ashitha Shivaprasad and Arpan Varghese for Reuters
Silver to benefit from solar sector demand once rates peak
Demand from the sector could reach 170-180 million ounces if new PV installation exceeds 400 gigawatts (GW) by 2025, said Philip Newman at consultants Metals Focus. However, solar panel manufacturers, having long been mindful of silver supplies after the price briefly hit $50 per ounce in 2011, will continue to reduce silver loadings through structural design improvements, Newman added. By Ashitha Shivaprasad for Reuters
How the wheels came off for SA’s platinum group metal miners
Platinum’s return will provide a timely reminder to a mining industry rule that minerals such as rhodium are byproducts — and no-one mines for byproducts alone, says Metals Focus’s Swarts. “Short-term price spikes are ultimately value-destructive”, she says. Learning this lesson will be valuable as platinum, and other minor metals such as iridium and ruthenium, take centre stage in the development of “green hydrogen” — a vast industry, driven by the world’s decarbonisation needs and extending into a multitude of industrial sectors. By David McKay for Mining Mx
Gold ESG Focus 2023 Report Hinted at Lower GHG Emissions
Metals Focus- the leading precious metals research consultancy announced publication of its Gold Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) Focus 2023 report. As per the report published by the UK-based consultancy, the world gold mining industry has shown significant improvement in key ESG metrics during the previous year. The report outlines the data for 17 major gold miners across the globe, in comparison with 2014 figures, so as to provide a broad outline of ESG trends in the gold mining industry. By Paul Ploumis for ScrapMonster
Silver will outperform gold as industrial demand picks up – BMO
Following record PV installations in 2022, Metals Focus projects another new high for installed capacity this year. “In the latest global PV market outlook released by Solar Power Europe, the installed capacity forecast for this year has increased significantly by 33% compared with the previous version, and the forecast for 2024 has also increased by 42%,” they said. By Ernest Hoffman for Kitco News
Energy & precious metals – weekly review and outlook
“Investors have been coming in at these low-$1,900s levels and they’ve been buyers, but equally, when gold has strengthened, they’ve been sellers. That’s helped to cap that range,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus. “Investors are very focused on the expectation element of interest rates, as opposed to where they are actually, because of the Fed’s consistent messaging that it’s not about to lower rates and any rate drop has been pushed out into 2024,” Newman added. By Barani Krishnan for Investing.com
European silver purchases collapse in 2023 while U.S. maintains record pace
Following a massive year of physical silver purchases in both the United States and Europe in 2022, the two regions have gone in very different directions this year, according to analysts at Metals Focus. “During 2020-22, exceptionally strong demand for silver coins and bars by western retail investors was an important feature of the global silver market; this in turn contributed to a widening physical deficit,” the analysts wrote in the latest Precious Metals Weekly report. By Ernest Hoffman for Kitco News
Indian gold market balanced between monsoon and bargain hunting
Gold investing in the massive Indian gold market looks to be returning to normal levels, according to data released by Metals Focus in its latest Indian gold report for 2023. Metals Focus said that demand for gold bars and coins in India fell by 7% in 2022 but remained above pre-pandemic levels. In its report, Metals Focus said “we expect the economic environment to remain broadly supportive of gold demand in 2023. However, the interplay of inflation, local gold prices and how the monsoon plays out, will understandably shape demand this year.” By Stuart Fieldhouse for The Armchair Trader
What’s next for gold price if chances of a recession are ‘slim,’ Metals Focus weighs in
The resiliency in the U.S. economy is forcing markets to re-price the monetary policy outlook for the rest of the year. And as gold looks to end the month down $65, Metals Focus analyzed how much lower gold can fall in light of stronger-than-expected economic indicators. Gold is seeing its worst month since February as markets shift expectations, pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike in July. After kicking off the month above $1,980 an ounce, August Comex gold futures last traded near 3.5-month lows at $1,916. By Anna Golubova for Kitco News
Palladium in retreat on EV prospects, growth risks
The palladium market is still expected to be in undersupply this year, with consultants Metals Focus seeing a deficit of 707,000 ounces and specialist materials maker Johnson Matthey a shortfall of 43,000 ounces in the roughly 10 million ounce a year market. But in spite of that, “investors and market participants are acutely aware of the longer-term headwinds that automotive offtake is bound to face as a result of electrification, especially for palladium and rhodium”, Wilma Swarts, Metals Focus’ director of PGMs, said when the forecast was published. By Ashitha Shivaprasad Reuters
The evolving picture of global gold production
The significant lag in the detailed data is due to the length of time it takes for various large-scale mining (LSM) data points to be published and collated. Our figures – supplied by Metals Focus – also include estimates for artisanal and small-scale mining (AGSM). Challenges in compiling accurate estimates for this portion of global gold production also contribute to the delay. By Krishan Gopaul for Gold Hub