“The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.” The tariff cut has been a boon for Indian jewellery stores such as MK Jewels in the upmarket Mumbai suburb of Bandra West, where director Ram Raimalani said “demand has been fantastic”. By Leslie Hook for the Financial Times

Does this ballooning deficit pressure mean that silver prices are about to head to the heavens? Not necessarily. “Identifiable silver inventories, as well as metal held off exchange, remain sizable,” according to Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which produced the “World Silver Survey” for the Silver Institute. “However, some of this silver may be tightly held, so it will be interesting to see, going forward, what impact ongoing deficits have on the market.” By Alexander Jones for International Banker

Import duty differentials between gold bullion bars and semi-refined doré had already been equalized by the New Delhi government after a failed attempt to boost India’s domestic bullion refining industry saw huge over-capacity in the late-2010s. But doré still accounted for nearly 28% of gross bullion inflows in 2021-2023 on Metals Focus’ data for the World Gold Council, up from less than 5% in 2012-2014. By BullionVault

However, strong economic data has not been the only driver of gold prices in recent weeks.“[The gold price] certainly wasn’t hurt by political events in the US over the weekend,” Neil Meader, director of gold and silver at Metals Focus, an independent metals consultancy in London, said. “It does sort of just add to that atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty.” By Tom Saunders for The Times

“Given the significant deficit, above-ground stocks have declined to their lowest levels in our records (dating back to 1980) this year, with further deficits expected in 2024 and 2025” said Wilma Swarts, head of platinum group metals research at consultancy Metals Focus. “This will further tighten liquidity and is likely to lift or support prices this year,” she added. By Polina Devitt, Pratima Desai and Arpan Varghese for Reuters

Indeed, in late October 2023, Metals Focus, a consultancy focused on precious metals, notified investors that AI technology’s growing popularity and proliferation will likely lead to a substantial increase in the price of the world’s foremost commodity. The prediction has, apparently, come true, given that gold was priced at about $1,800 per ounce late last year and rose above $2,300 just months later. By Andreja Stojanovic for Finbold

Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus, an independent precious metals consultancy, said: “You’ve got that element of safe haven out there and with the Middle East, from a big picture point of view, this has brought Iran back into focus.” By Tom Saunders for The Times

In 2024, the silver deficit will be the second highest on record behind 2022 as industrial demand reaches a new high, according to the Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey. “Robust gains from PV applications and a decent performance in other segments are expected to see industrial demand reach a new all-time record,” says Metals Focus, producer of the latest Silver Survey. “Crucially, supply will remain little changed, with a marginal decline forecast for 2024. This will lead to a 17 per cent rise in the market deficit to the second-highest on record.” By Stockhead

Precious metals consultancy Metals Focus’ new ‘Platinum Group Metals (PGM) Focus 2024’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the PGM industry, indicates that the rest of the year will be defined by persistent supply constraints, coupled with robust demand, leading to another year of deficits across platinum, palladium and rhodium. “However, high inventories will [also] weigh on prices,” Metals Focus PGM director Wilma Swarts says. By Darren Parker for Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly

Average prices for platinum, palladium and rhodium are expected to fall this year compared with 2023 despite another year of structural deficit for all the three metals of the group, consultancy Metals Focus said on Monday. The basket price of the platinum group metals (PGMs), which are chiefly used in vehicle exhausts to neutralise harmful engine emissions, slumped in 2023 due to worries that rising market share of PGMs-free, battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) would reduce demand in future. By Polina Devitt for Reuters

In their weekly note published Thursday, analysts at Metals Focus said that the eventual monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve will drive gold prices higher in the second half of the year. “Later this year, we expect prices will rise again, with a new all-time high likely,” said Neil Meader, Director of Gold and Silver at Metals Focus. “After all, the recent $2,450 peak is lower, in real terms, than the 1980 one, which would have been around $3,000 in today’s prices.” By Neils Christensen for Kitco News

Amid today’s “increasingly favourable price environment…additional supply [will start] coming on-stream in the next two years,” say specialist analysts Metals Focus – the consultancy behind the gold supply and demand trends’ data published this week by the WGC – “primarily driven by North America.” Back in the first quarter of 2024, “Increases [in the second-hand gold flow] were seen in almost all markets and regions,” says the World Gold Council’s latest report. By BullionVault

For precious metals investors, gold has been the focus. And those physical silver deficits we mentioned? Negated by massive above ground inventories, says Metals Focus. “At end-2023, stocks held in London and exchange registered vaults amounted to nearly 15 months of global supply and there are bullion inventories also held elsewhere,” it says. “This is likely to prevent a physical squeeze from emerging in the short-term, in spite of the robust supply/demand conditions discussed above.” This means investment demand, not physical demand, will likely remain the dominant price driver. By Reuben Adams for Stockhead

Added to continued outflows from gold-backed ETF trust fund products, that saw gold investment selling in North America and Western Europe total more than 84 tonnes between January and March – adding an extra 6.8% to global gold mining and scrap recycling flows on the WGC’s new data, compiled by specialist analysts Metals Focus. By BullionVault

In a recent research report, analysts at Metals Focus noted that historically, Asian investors have sold into rising gold prices; however, this rally has been different as demand for physical bullion has remained strong as prices pushed to record highs above $2,400 an ounce. “Although sharp price gains have weighed on jewellery consumption, bullish price expectations (and a lack of alternative investment options in some countries) have, in fact, helped boost demand for bars and coins and have limited the scale of profit taking in Asia and the Middle East,” the analysts said in a recent report. By Neils Christensen for Kitco News

“The deficit in the silver market helps to provide robust support and a strong floor for the price,” said Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, which produces the annual survey. “The deficit fell by 30 percent last year, but in absolute terms — at 184.3 million ounces — it was still eye-watering. Global supply has been broadly steady at around the 1-billion-ounce mark, while industrial demand did incredibly well with 11 percent growth,” he added. By Giann Liguid for Investing News Network