Gold’s appeal as a haven from risk strengthened further as newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump turned to tariffs to aid struggling domestic industry, despite the risk of sparking a trade war. When Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium this week, spot gold hit a record $2,942.70 per ounce. “What we have seen is the change in the motive for safe-haven buying – from being driven by the Middle East uncertainty to the threat and realisation of tariffs,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus. By Polina Devitt for Reuters

Towards the end of 2024, fears of tariffs led to significant shifts in the global gold trade. India experienced a strong gold market in 2024, with record-high prices driven by sustained consumer demand and post-duty cut pent-up buying, according to Chirag Sheth, Principal Consultant-South Asia at Metals Focus. Jewellery remained a key investment choice for Indian consumers, highlighting the market’s resilience despite global economic uncertainties. By By Manisha Gupta for CNBC

Overnight leasing rates for gold recently jumped as high as 12 per cent, according to Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, a London-based precious metals consultancy. “Leasing rates are well above normal levels — and they are likely to remain volatile for some time,” he said. By the Financial Times

International mining companies are at the mercy of “terrifying” tactics from military regimes in Africa’s Sahel, whose leaders are using legal disputes, nationalisations and arrests to assert greater control over crucial minerals such as gold and uranium. Barrick Gold on Tuesday temporarily suspended operations in Mali after the government started seizing gold from its mine, weeks after the country issued an arrest warrant for chief executive Mark Bristow. Authorities separately detained Australian gold miner Resolute’s chief executive Terence Holohan for nearly two weeks. By Aanu Adeoye and Camilla Hodgson for Financial Times

Precious metals consultancy Metals Focus finds in its latest ‘Platinum Group Metals (PGM) Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Focus’ report that producers are increasingly strapped for cash to invest in these initiatives amid a lower PGM price environment and tighter margins. The report contains comparisons of key ESG metrics across five major PGM producers, which account for about 85% of global PGM supply. By: Marleny Arnoldi for Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly

The global silver deficit is expected to fall by 4% to 182 million ounces in 2024, with growth of 2% in total supply offsetting demand growth of 1%, the Silver Institute industry association said on Wednesday. Silver, used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels as well as an investment, faces the fourth year of a structural market deficit, the Silver Institute said in a review prepared with consultancy Metals Focus. By Reuters

In Q2’24, dare it be written, All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) rose again, creeping up by 1% q/q, or a more substantial 6% y/y to US$1,388/oz. In some ways, the onward march of AISC in the last couple of years is reminiscent of hill-walking; just when you think you’ve reached the top, there’s always that little bit more hill to climb. And yet, in Q2’24, it isn’t just the usual suspects driving this growth. by Sarah Tomlinson

The second in our series of precious metals market snapshots from the team at Metals Focus looks at the silver market. Be sure to come back next week for analysis on platinum. From the publication of the last Investment Focus from Metals Focus in October 2023 and through to February, silver prices languished, trading largely rangebound in the low $20s. However, silver has since staged an impressive rally, rising by more than a third from the start of this year to a 12-year high of $32.52 in May. By Stuart Fieldhouse for the armchair trader

Gold’s meteoric rise to $2,740.37 per troy ounce reflects growing geopolitical tensions and economic shifts. Metals Focus attributes the increased demand to uncertainties surrounding the US electoral race and broader macroeconomic issues. The outlook remains optimistic, with forecasts of gold reaching $2,800 by year-end, supported by expected global interest rate cuts. By Finimize Newsroom

“The need for portfolio diversification has continued to drive investment inflows into gold, whether investors base their views on ever rising U.S. public debt in the long term, systemic risks in global financial markets or possible corrections in richly priced equities,” consultancy Metals Focus said. By Polina Devitt and Swati Verma for Reuters

If Trump wins, the potential for tariff hikes—and the associated effects on future inflation—and further geopolitical uncertainties could provide an additional boost to gold investment. That said, both Trump and Harris’s policies will see U.S. debt rise, albeit more under Trump, according to an independent analysis, the Metals Focus team said. by The Wall Street Journal

Some of the recent strong gains in gold initially appear counter-intuitive, given the European Central Bank interest rate cut and boost to the dollar, according to Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus. The price of gold, which pays no interest, tends to rise when interest rates are cut. By Sian Bradley for The Times

The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey, put together by Metals Focus, outlines a 1 percent decrease in global mine production to 830.5 million ounces in 2023. This was in large part the result of a four month suspension of operations at Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) Peñasquito mine in Mexico due to strike action among workers. By Melissa Pistilli for Investing News Network

“The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.” The tariff cut has been a boon for Indian jewellery stores such as MK Jewels in the upmarket Mumbai suburb of Bandra West, where director Ram Raimalani said “demand has been fantastic”. By Leslie Hook for the Financial Times

Does this ballooning deficit pressure mean that silver prices are about to head to the heavens? Not necessarily. “Identifiable silver inventories, as well as metal held off exchange, remain sizable,” according to Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which produced the “World Silver Survey” for the Silver Institute. “However, some of this silver may be tightly held, so it will be interesting to see, going forward, what impact ongoing deficits have on the market.” By Alexander Jones for International Banker

Import duty differentials between gold bullion bars and semi-refined doré had already been equalized by the New Delhi government after a failed attempt to boost India’s domestic bullion refining industry saw huge over-capacity in the late-2010s. But doré still accounted for nearly 28% of gross bullion inflows in 2021-2023 on Metals Focus’ data for the World Gold Council, up from less than 5% in 2012-2014. By BullionVault